Win-back
Repeat-purchase rate is sliding.
Push the At-Risk cell to a Klaviyo flow with a 15% off code that expires in 72 hours. Recover the revenue that's already paid to acquire.
RFM Loyalty
Spot the customers about to leave - before they do.
A 16-cell Recency × Frequency × Monetary matrix updated nightly. See your VIPs, your loyal middle, and your defectors at a glance - then push any cell into a Klaviyo win-back flow with one click.
60-second install · 14 days free · No card, no auto-charge
5.0 from 100+ reviews on the Shopify App Store
Last 30 days · Apr 5 – May 4Compare: No comparisonSegment: All Customers
RFM Loyalty Matrix
Recency × Frequency × Monetary
3,981 customers · scored nightly
Live
RecentLapsed
New
412
Promising
238
Potential
156
Champions
94
About to leave
186
Need attention
302
Loyal
218
Top spenders
67
At risk
412
Slipping
356
Can't lose
92
Champions+
32
Hibernating
548
About to lose
284
Lost loyal
143
Lost VIPs
41
Low valueHigh value
16
RFM cells
From Champions to Defectors
Nightly
Auto-rescore
Tuned to your store's cadence
1-click
Klaviyo push
Any cell becomes a flow
The loyalty report Shopify should have built.
RFM scores every customer on three axes: how recently they bought, how often, and how much they spent. By the Numbers does the math, calibrates to your store's normal cadence, and serves it up as 16 actionable segments - not 1,000 spreadsheet rows.
- Recency, Frequency, Monetary scored 1–4 on each axis
- Pre-named cells: Champions, Loyal, Promising, At-Risk, Hibernating, Defected, and 10 more
- Per-cell counts, AOV, and revenue contribution
- Automatic rescoring as customer behavior shifts
Last 30 days · Apr 5 – May 4Compare: No comparisonSegment: All Customers
Customer Loyalty Journey
New
1,284
100%
Promising
612
48%
Loyal
384
30%
Champion
156
12%
Biggest drop
Loyal → Champion
59% slip away at Day 180 - prime window for a Klaviyo retention flow.
Which Shopify customers actually deserve the discount?
Stop blanket-discounting your VIPs. The matrix tells you who would have bought anyway, who needs a nudge, and who is gone unless you reach in fast. Match the offer to the cell.
- Champions: reward, don't discount - they're paying full price for a reason
- Loyal: cross-sell - they trust you enough to try new categories
- At-Risk: 15–20% off + free ship - last chance before they're gone
- Hibernating: a single break-up email beats a 4-week flow
Last 30 days · Apr 5 – May 4Compare: No comparisonSegment: All Customers
RFM Loyalty Matrix
Recency × Frequency × Monetary
3,981 customers · scored nightly
Live
RecentLapsed
New
412
Promising
238
Potential
156
Champions
94
About to leave
186
Need attention
302
Loyal
218
Top spenders
67
At risk
412
Slipping
356
Can't lose
92
Champions+
32
Hibernating
548
About to lose
284
Lost loyal
143
Lost VIPs
41
Low valueHigh value
Use it when
Three RFM moves you can ship this week
VIP program
You don't know who your real VIPs are.
Champions cell = your top ~5%. Send them an early-access drop, a hand-written thank-you, or a referral incentive. Don't waste a discount.
Inventory planning
You're guessing demand for a SKU launch.
Filter Champions + Loyal who bought in that category. The cell size and AOV is your floor estimate for first-week sell-through.
The 7 groups
Every Shopify customer falls into one of seven groups.
The RFM matrix sorts your store by buying behaviour and time. Each group needs a different message, at a different cadence, with a different offer.
Who they are
Bought in the last 30 days · 4+ lifetime orders
What to do
Reward, don't discount. Early access, loyalty perks, referral incentives.
Who they are
Last order 1–6 months ago · 4+ lifetime orders
What to do
Cross-sell adjacent categories. These customers trust you enough to try something new.
Who they are
2–3 orders in the last 6 months
What to do
Move them to loyal with a personalised second-purchase flow.
Who they are
Bought in the last 30 days · only 1 order so far
What to do
Welcome flow with a hero-product cross-sell. Set the cadence early.
Who they are
1–6 months since their single order
What to do
Soft win-back. 10% off, free ship, social proof for your hero SKU.
Who they are
6–12 months since their last visit
What to do
Last-chance flow with a stronger incentive and a clear deadline.
Who they are
12+ months since their last visit
What to do
One break-up email beats a four-week flow. Stop spending on them after.
Why it pays back
Five ways Shopify operators use the RFM matrix.
The same dataset answers five different business questions. The team that runs all five compounds the value of every customer they've already paid to acquire.
01
Targeted marketing
Match the channel and the offer to the cell. Champions get an early-access invite; at-risk customers get a 20% off code with a deadline. Same budget, more revenue.
02
Product recommendation
Use frequency and category history to recommend the next product each cell is most likely to buy. Cross-sell flows write themselves once the data is sliced.
03
Inventory planning
Forecast restock priority by segment demand. Champions and loyal buyers drive your core SKU plan; promising customers signal which new SKUs to expand.
04
Churn prediction
The matrix flags the journey from loyal to at-risk before the customer consciously churns. Catch them in the window where a single email still works.
05
Customer retention
Move customers from promising → loyal → champion through targeted lifecycle flows. Retention beats acquisition cost every time once your segments are defined.
The honest case against doing this yourself
Manual RFM is a nice idea until you do it twice.
A proper manual RFM analysis is a seven-step job: export orders, group by recency, group by frequency, calculate monetary value, compute lifetime value, average each group, then rebuild the cells. Most stores run it once, get a snapshot that's two weeks stale by Wednesday, and never come back.
Hiring a dedicated data analyst to keep it fresh runs £80,000 to £120,000 a year. A one-off agency engagement to build it once costs £5K to £15K. By the Numbers ships RFM as part of the platform from £19/mo, refreshes it overnight, and pushes any cell straight into Klaviyo. Shopify's native reports stop at totals — they were never designed for behavioural segmentation.
What manual RFM costs you
- Hours per refresh4–8h
- Refresh cadence to stay usefulWeekly
- Dedicated analyst (annual)£80K+
- One-off agency build£5K–£15K
- Native Shopify RFM reportDoesn't exist
- By the Numbers£19/mo · automatic
“The Loyalty, Segment, and Cohort sections are very comprehensive. The team shipped enhancements incredibly fast and support is top-tier.”
Mavi JeansShopify Plus · Apparel
“The customer loyalty report helped me bring back customers that were about to defect. The information already paid for the app for years.”
Nostalgicbulbs.comDTC · Lighting
RFM FAQ
Common questions about the RFM matrix.
What is an RFM matrix?
RFM stands for Recency, Frequency, and Monetary value. Each customer is scored on those three axes and placed into one of 16 cells (or 7 named groups). The matrix tells you which customers are your champions, which are slipping, and which are gone — so you can match the marketing action to the cell instead of blasting your whole list.
How is the RFM matrix calculated?
By the Numbers scores every customer 1–4 on each of Recency, Frequency, and Monetary value. Recency = days since last order. Frequency = number of orders in the lookback window. Monetary = total spend. The combined score places the customer in one of 16 cells. We do the scoring nightly so the matrix reflects yesterday's behaviour.
What's the difference between Champions and Loyal customers?
Champions bought very recently (within ~30 days) AND have 4+ lifetime orders — they're active, high-frequency, often high-value. Loyal customers also have 4+ orders but their last purchase was 1–6 months ago. Champions get rewarded, Loyal customers get cross-sold.
Why use RFM instead of just looking at lifetime value?
LTV is a backward-looking single number. RFM is a forward-looking 16-cell map: it tells you which high-LTV customers are about to churn, which low-LTV customers are still climbing, and which one-time buyers will never come back. The action you take is completely different for each.
Can I build an RFM matrix in Shopify by hand?
You can — export orders to CSV, write the scoring logic in Excel or SQL, then rebuild it every week as the data shifts. Most stores try this once, get a stale snapshot a fortnight later, and stop. By the Numbers does it nightly, automatically, and pushes the cells into Klaviyo for you.
How does the matrix sync with Klaviyo?
Any RFM cell can be pushed to Klaviyo as a live customer audience with one click. The list refreshes hourly, so when a customer moves from Loyal to At-Risk overnight, they're automatically added to the win-back flow you've already built.
How much does an RFM analysis cost without an app like this?
A dedicated data analyst can run $80K–$120K a year. Even a one-off agency engagement to build the report and the flows around it typically runs $5K–$15K. By the Numbers ships RFM as part of the platform from $19/mo — and updates it for you.
See your RFM matrix in 60 seconds.
Install free on Shopify. Backfilled overnight. Push your first win-back segment to Klaviyo by tomorrow.
60-second install · 14 days free · No card, no auto-charge